基于NKPC框架的我国通货膨胀动态机制分析

Analysis on the Dynamic Mechanism of China's Inflation Based on NKPC Framework

本文以新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线(NKPC)理论为基础,研究了中国通货膨胀动态形成机制,并据此构建SVAR模型以分析实际通胀对各影响因素的冲击反应。研究发现,自2008年金融危机以来,通胀预期和通胀惯性对实际通胀的影响力持续增强,而产出缺口的影响力则没有明显的时变特征。值得关注的是,本文发现通胀预期对实际通胀的影响效果缺乏稳定性,暗示我国目前的通胀预期粘性程度可能较大。中央银行在进行预期管理时首先要厘清通胀预期与实际通胀的关系,疏通预期传导机制,以便更好地服务于防通胀任务。

This paper explores the dynamic formation mechanism of China＇s inflation based on the framework of NKPC and analyses the reaction of inflation to the shocks from different factors with the theory of NKPC. Empirical study shows that inflation expectation and inflation inertia have the reinforcing impacts on inflation, but the influence of the output gap doesn＇t have obvious time-varying characteristics since the outbreak of the international financial crisis. What deserves attention is that the impact analysis shows that the inflation expectation has unstable effect on actual inflation. This result may imply that currently China＇s inflation expectation is highly sticky. The central bank should manage to stabilize the relations between inflation expectation and actual inflation and unlock the transmission mechanism of expectation in its efforts to fight against inflation.