出口贸易内嵌碳成本因素分解及影响效应研究

Factors Decomposition and Impacting Effect of Carbon Cost Embodied in Goods of International Trade

本文将单位能耗和单位排放综合为内嵌碳成本指标,通过价值模型向碳模型的转换,构建出口贸易内嵌碳成本影响模型。实证分析结果表明,我国制造业新增固定资本投资、工业制成品出口比例对于我国单位美元制造业出口能耗和CO_2排放具有正向长期影响效应,而制造业人均工资和R&D投资比例的长期影响为负,短期波动影响具有累积效应。单位美元制造业出口能耗和CO_2排放对新增固定资本投资的冲击具有稳定的正向响应,对人均工资和R&D投资比例的冲击具有稳定的负向响应,而对工业制成品出口比例的冲击响应方向不确定。

This article sets up a carbon cost embodied in export model from the angle of political economy to analyze the energy consumption and carbon dioxide e- mission of unit value. Based on the data analysis of China＇s manufacturing, there is a long-term positive effect on the energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission of unit value brought by new fixed capital investment and ratio of manufactured goods export. Average wage of manufacturing workers and ratio of R＆D invest- ment to GDP take a negative effect, and the short-term fluctuation has a accumula- ted effect. Impulse response analysis shows that there is a significant and stable pos- itive response on the new fixed capital investment, and a negative response on the average wage of manufacturing workers and ratio of R＆D investment to GDP to en- ergy consumption and carbon emission. But there is no one specific and one-way im- pulse response on the ratio of manufactured goods export.