武广高铁对湖南生产性服务业发展的影响

The Impact of Wuhan-Guangzhou High-Speed Railway on the Development of Hunan Producer Services

首先利用调研成果,得出武广高铁旅客行业和目的特征,并选取武广高铁对湖南生产性服务业发展影响的主要指标,与湖南铁路客运量构建双对数模型,运用灰色预测和"有无对比法",代入双对数模型中,得到武广高铁对各主要影响指标的贡献率。结果表明:2010年,武广高铁开通对湖南生产性服务业固定资产投资额、生产性服务业就业人数、生产性服务业增加值、第三产业增加值、城市化率的贡献率分别是6.67%、2.57%、5.16%、5.90%、0.16%,2011年这一贡献率上升为8.26%、4.01%、7.23%、7.74%、2.01%,说明武广高铁的开通确实对湖南生产性服务业发展水平做出贡献,并且随着高铁开通时间的延长,这一贡献将不断增加。

The opening of the Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway that will accelerate the development of Hunan producer services has become an accepted fact, but some things like how much the effect it makes are not clear. Therefore, this paper uses the results of research to draw some characteristics such as the passenger business of the Wtthan-Guangzhou high-speed rail, the aims of the Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed rail, and the influence of Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed rail on Hunan producer services. Then, it builds a double logarithm model with the traffic of Hunan railway passenger. Again, it carries out the ＂have and have-not comparison method＂, and uses the grey prediction model to predict the contribution rate of the main factors of Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed rail influencing the development of Hunan producer services, and the results show that： in 2010, the contribution rate of the opening of the Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway to the fixed assets investment of producer services, to the enployment number of producer services, to the added value of Hunan producer services, to the added value of the third industry, and to the urbanization rate are respectively 6.67%, 2.57%, 5.16%, 5.90%, 0.16%; in 2011, the contribution rate increases respectively to 8.26%, 4.01%, 7.23%, 7.74%, 2.01%. And this illustrates that the opening of the Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway makes contribution to the developmental level of hunan producer services, and with the opening time of high-speed railway, this contribution will continue to increase.