银行业市场结构与经济增长关系——基于广东省与湖南省的空间计量研究

Banking Industry Structure and Economic Growth: The Spatial Econometrics Research on Guangdong Province and Hunan Province

通过采用存款集中度和贷款集中度刻画银行业市场结构,以与产业转移相关的广东省和湖南省为研究对象,利用2001—2011年的相关数据,研究了银行业市场结构与经济增长的关系。结果表明:整体上,存款集中度和贷款集中度与经济增长呈显著的负相关关系。但两省各地的经济发展存在空间依赖性和空间溢出效应,湖南省降低存贷款集中度能促进经济增长,而广东省适度提高存贷款集中度有利于经济持续增长。当期模型实证结果表明两省的存贷款集中度越集中,越不利于经济增长;跨期模型中的存贷款集中度对经济增长的负作用程度没有当期模型大,降低存贷款集中度对经济增长的促进作用有所下降。

This paper defined the banking market structure as deposit concentration and loan concentration, and focus on the Guangdong Province and Hunan Province which associated with the transfer of industries. Using the relevant data from 2001 to 2011, we studied the relationship between banking market structure and economic growth. The results of ordinary linear regression show that the deposit concentration and loan concentration showed a significant negative correlation with economic growth. Considering that the differences of spatial among cities may have an impact on the results, we tested the spatial autocorrelation test and established the current spatial lag model and intertemporal spatial error model. Regressions results show that, compared to the initial deposit concentration, the current deposits concentration have a greater negative impact on economic growth.