服务贸易对浙江经济发展的协整分析

Study on Trade Services Impact on Economic Development of Zhejiang Province

作为国际贸易的重要组成部分,服务贸易在我国经济活动中占据着越来越重要的位置。扩大服务贸易,对于优化外贸出口结构、促进产业结构调整和经济发展具有深远影响。文章以1997-2010年浙江省服务贸易进、出口额与GDP数据,从实证角度分析服务贸易对浙江经济发展的影响,结果发现服务贸易与浙江经济增长存在长期协整关系。服务贸易进、出口与浙江经济增长存在正相关,服务贸易进口对浙江经济发展的影响大于服务贸易出口对其的影响。

As an important component of international trade,service trade in China＇s economic activities occupies an increas-ingly important position. Expanding trade in services has a far-reaching impact on optimizing the export structure, promoting industrial restructuring and developing economy. Based on the data of import,export of trade in services and GDP in Zhejiang Province in year 1997-2010, this paper analyses the impact of trade in services on economic development from the empirical point of view. We find that there is a long-term co-integration relationship between trades in service and economic development in Zhejiang. The import and export of trade in service are positively related to Zhejiang＇s economic growth, the impact of im-ports of trade in services on economy is greater than the impact of exports of trade in services.