金融深化、FDI溢出效应与地区TFP——基于省级面板门槛模型的实证分析

Financial Deepening, FDI Spillovers and Regional TFP——Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Threshold Model

在考虑经济运行互动关系中内在非线性结构的前提下,从金融深化角度探究了外商直接投资(FDI)对地区全要素生产率(TFP)的溢出效应的影响机制,采用1992-2011年我国29个省级单位的面板数据,通过运用非线性理论的"门槛模型"检验和回归方法,以金融深化为门槛变量,实证研究了外商直接投资对地区全要素生产率的影响。结果发现,总体上金融深化和外商直接投资都有利于提高全要素生产率,且存在基于金融深化的"双门槛效应",即不同地区的金融深化水平对外商直接投资的溢出效应的影响存在非线性的结构变化,随着金融深化和发展水平的不断提高,外商直接投资的溢出效应呈区间递增的态势。

Considering the inherent nonlinear structure of economy, this paper explores the impact mechanism of foreign direct investment （FDI） spillovers on regional total factor productivity （TFP） from the perspective of financial deepening, and conducted an empirical study using 1992-2011 China＇s 29 provincial-level panel data and ＂threshold model＂. The results found that, overall financial deepening and FDI are conducive to improve the TFP, and exists ＂double threshold effect＂ of financial deepening, which means a nonlinear structure between financial deepening and the spillover effects of FDI in different areas. As the development of financial deepening, the spillover effect of FDI is increasing.