不同预案下锦葫沿海地区景观格局变化的模拟分析

Landscape pattern change simulation of Jinhu coastal area with different plans

【目的】分析历史预案和规划预案条件下,辽宁锦葫沿海地区景观格局的变化趋势,为该地区土地利用总体规划及土地资源合理配置提供参考。【方法】基于遥感和GIS等技术,解译得到1990、2000和2010年的锦葫沿海景观类型图,作为预案模拟的基础;采用ARMA模型动态预测锦葫沿海地区的土地需求量,并使用Logistic-CA模型对锦葫沿海地区2011-2020年不同景观类型分布的历史预案和规划预案进行空间模拟和比较。【结果】1)2种预案条件下,除建设用地面积呈增长趋势外,其他用地面积都呈递减趋势,而规划预案比历史预案用地集约;2)2011-2020年,2种预案条件下锦葫沿海地区各景观格局指数变化趋势一致,其中斑块数目和斑块密度均降低,说明锦葫地区景观破碎化程度将有所降低,斑块形状变化比较复杂,优势景观面积正逐渐减小,而斑块平均大小呈上升趋势,少数景观类型占有的比重不断增大;3)2种预案条件下,锦葫沿海地区的生态服务价值均呈下滑趋势,但规划预案的生态服务功能要优于历史预案。【结论】对研究区的景观格局进行预案模拟,可以为土地利用的总体规划和土地资源的合理分配提供参考。

【Objective】Analysis on the changes of landscape pattern in Liaoning Jinhu coastal area with the historical plan and planning plan was conducted to improve the overall planning of land use and land resources rational allocation.【Method】Landscape pattern maps of Jinhu coastal area in 1990,2000 and 2010 were generated with remote sensing and GIS for scenario simulation.ARMA model was used to predict land total quantity,and Logistic-CA model was used to simulate historical plan and planning plan of Jinhu coastal area landscape pattern from 2011 to 2020,then comparative analysis was conducted.【Result】1） In the two scenarios,landscape areas except construction land showed decreasing trend.For intensive land use,planning plan was better than historical plan.2） From 2011 to 2020,landscape pattern index changing trend of Jinhu coastal area of the two plans was consistent,and the number of patch and patch density decreased,which suggested that landscape fragmentation degree decreased,patch shape variation was more complex,the dominant landscape area was decreasing,while mean patch size was increasing,and the proportions of a few types of landscape were continuously increasing.3） Although the ecological service values of both scenarios were on a downward tendency,planning plan of ecological service function was superior to the historical plan.【Conclusion】Scenario simulation of landscape pattern for aiming area is beneficial to overall planning of land use and Land resources rational allocation.