城市轨道交通公共自行车换乘需求预测方法研究

Bike-and-Ride Demand Forecasting in Urban Rail Transit Station

为预测城市轨道交通站的公共自行车换乘需求,在问卷调查分析的基础上,对公共自行车换乘需求的影响因素进行研究.以非集计模型为基础,构建了二元Logit公共自行车换乘选择模型,模型命中率达到85.6%.选取上海轨交11号线汽车城站作为案例,对预测方法及模型的可靠性进行了验证.

For predicting the demand of public bicycles of the rail transit station accurately,the influencing factors of demand of public bicycles are analyzed with questionnaire data,and then a binary logit model of public bicycles is established.The hit rate of the model is 85.6％.Finally,the station of Shanghai International Automobile City of Line 11 is selected as the test case,the feasibility of the forecasting method and the model accuracy is proved.The research could be the references for site selection and capacity analysis of public bicycles system.