基于GFI模型广东能源消费变动的因素分解分析

Factor Decomposition Analysis of Energy Consumption Change in Guangdong Based on GFI Model

运用广东省1990—2009年能源消费的面板数据,采用广义费雪指数方法对广东能源消费的影响因素进行分解分析,探讨产业能源效率、产业结构、经济发展与人口发展等因素对广东能源消费变动的影响和作用。为了进一步剖析各因素对能源消费变动的影响效果,构建回归分析模型,研究表明:经济发展、人口发展与产业结构对广东能源消费增长起到推动作用,产业能源效率对广东能源消费增长起到抑制作用。

Based on the panel data of energy consumption from 1990 to 2009 in Guangdong province , the paper analyzes the influencing factors of energy consumption in Guangdong by Generalized Fisher Index （GFI）, investigating the influence of industrial energy efficiency , industrial structure , economic development and population development on energy consumption change in Guang -dong province .In order to further analyze the effect of various factors on energy consumption , the paper builds the regression analy-sis model .The study shows that economic development ,population development and industrial structure play roles in promoting the growth of energy consumption in Guangdong , meanwhile , industrial energy efficiency Play an inhibitory effect in the growth of energy consumption in Guangdong .