基于STIRPAT和PLS模型的工业碳排放影响因素实证研究——以南昌市为代表的二线发展较弱城市为例

Study on Effect Factors of the Industrial Carbon Emissions Based on the STIRPAT and PLS Model——An Empirical Analysis of the Second Line Less-Developed Cityrepresented by Nanchang

二线发展较弱城市在二氧化碳减排压力下,既要兼顾环境和谐的碳减排要求又要平衡经济发展的能源消耗增加带来的碳排放增长关系,识别影响这种关系的关键因素为该类城市制定减排策略提供了思路借鉴。通过对南昌市34个工业行业的能源消费碳排放规模和碳排放强度进行了较为精确的估算,构建了2001-2010年南昌市工业碳排放的面板数据库;基于改进的STIRPAT模型对产业碳排放进行筛选,进一步采用偏最小二乘回归方法(PLS)分别构建了南昌工业碳排放规模和碳排放强度的影响评估模型。研究结果显示在二线发展较弱城市,投资规模、能源强度、能源消费结构以及研发强度对碳排放总量和强度均存在显著促进作用;而劳均工业产值对工业碳排放总量和强度产生了相反的影响,分别表现出显著的促进和抑制作用。

The second line less-development city should not only cater to the requirements of carbon emission reduction and to balance the energy consumption increase with the economic development, under the pressure of carbon emission reduction. So identify the key factors influence on the relation- ship will contribute to the less-developed city making reduction strategy. The paper build a panel da- tabase of 2001 -2010 industrial carbon emissions in Nanehang city ,through a more refined estimate of energy consumption and carbon emissions intensity of 34 industries in Nanchang. And based on the improved STIRPAT and PLS model, this paper builds an environmental impact assessment model for each of the industrial carbon emissions scale and carbon emissions intensity. The results revealthat the investment scale,energy intensity and energy consumption structure, R＆D nificant impact on both carbon emission and carbon intensity, but the Industrial shows significant promotion or inhibition impact on each. intensity have sig- output per capita