基于累积Logistic回归模型对化工园区人群认知风险的研究

Study on crowd perceived risk of chemical park based on cumulative Logistic regression model

随着化工园区重大危险源集中监管的深化,政府和企业在安全生产活动中扮演着比以往更重要的角色。如何降低园区内人群对危险源的敏感性,以便在有谣言时不会伴随更大的混乱;什么样的因素对园区内人群认知风险具有显著相关性,以便政府和企业在安全生产活动中更好地发挥职能。针对上述问题,通过对江西省某化工园区进行问卷调查,所得的数据采用累积logistic模型进行分析,得出对风险认知具有显著性差异的因素。有助于政府及企业管理人员对园区内人群认知风险的了解,建议化工园区以及政府需要进一步宣传安全知识,配套安全设备等,最终降低谣言对生产活动的影响、冲击,稳定社会秩序。

Along with the deepening of centralized supervisory on major hazard installations in chemical industry park, the government and enterprises are now playing more important role in safety production activities than be- fore. However, there are still having some problems to be faced. For instance, how to reduce crowd vulnerability, so as to avoid great confusion in rumor; what is the key factor in crowd perceived risk, which can be reduced by government and enterprises. For the above issues, the resulting data were sbtanined through the questionnaire sur- vey in a chemical park of Jiangxi Province and they were analyzed using cumulative logistic model. It is useful to help operator to manage the enterprise and stable social order.