汇率、国民收入与我国农产品出口市场结构——以日本、美国与德国为例

Exchange Rate, National Income and Export Market Structure of Agricultural Products in China——The Case of Japan, the United States and Germany

本文使用2005年第三季度至2012年第四季度数据作为研究样本,建立面板数据模型实证分析了人民币实际汇率与外国国民收入变动对我国日本、美国以及德国三个主要农产品出口市场的影响。研究结果表明:人民币对日元实际汇率上升导致对我国对日本农产品出口减少。但是,人民币对美元与欧元实际汇率上升与我国对美国与德国农产品出口同时上升。日本、美国与德国实际国民收入的增加促进了对我国农产品的进口。

Using the data from the third quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2012 as the research sample, the paper establishes a panel data model to make an empirical analysis on the influence of the change of RMB real exchange rate and foreign national in- come on China＇s export market of agricultural products to Japan, the United States and Germany. The research results show that the rise of RMB real exchange rate against the Yen leads to a decrease of the export of China＇s agricultural products to Japan. However, the exports of China＇s agricultural products to the United States and Germany increase when the real exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar and the Euro rises. The increase of real national income of Japan, the United States and Germany promotes their imports for China＇s agricultural products.