基于LMDI的广东省碳排放影响因素分解研究

Factor Decomposition of Carbon Emissions in Guangdong Province Based on LMDI

通过计算广东省1995—2011年化石能源消耗所产生的碳排放量,并对其进行对数平均迪氏(LMDI)分解分析。结果发现,经济增长是引起广东省碳排放量增加的主要原因,能源强度和碳强度降低有效抑制了广东省碳排放量增加,产业结构变动降低了广东省碳排放量,但影响较小。针对分析结果,提出相应的政策建议。

Using the logarithmic mean divisia method（ LMDI）, the Guangdong Province carbon emissions between the year from 1995 to 2011 were deeomposed into four effects. The deeomposition results showed that the increase of CO2 emissions was mainly caused by the growth of economic output, the Guangdong Province carbon emissions decreased because the energy intensity and carbon intensity decrease overall, the industrial adjust- ment had little effect on the CO2 emissions reduction. Therefore, this paper proposed to maintain a reasonable GDP growth rate, improve energy effi- ciency, exploit new energy, optimize energy consumption structure, speed up the tertiary industry and optimize the industrial structure to promote the development of low - carbon economy in Guangdong Province.