我国人口城市化与建筑业发展的动态关联性研究——基于VAR模型的实证检验

Research on Dynamic Relativity of Population Urbanization and Construction Industry Development in China —— An Empirical Test Based on VAR Model

在1978—2011年度经济数据的基础上,采用VAR模型对我国的人口城市化与建筑业发展两个变量进行动态计量分析。结果表明,我国人口城市化对建筑业发展的拉动作用较强,而建筑业发展对人口城市化的推动作用不明显;在过去较长的一段时期内,人口城市化是我国建筑发展的单向Granger原因;人口城市化与建筑业发展带给对方的冲击效应的都是正向的,但短期内呈现出较明显的波动态势;造成人口城市化与建筑业发展波动的原因在短期内主要是由自身因素导致的,而随着时间的推移,来自对方的影响逐渐增强,两者的动态关联特征具有非常明显的滞后效应。

This paper used VAR model to analyzed the relation between two variables of population urbanization and construction development with dynamic econometric analysis method on the basis of economic data from 1978 to 2011. The results showed that the population urbanization pull function on the construction industry development was stronger, but the promoting role of population urbanization to construction industry development was not obvious. In a long time, the population urbanization was one - way Granger causes to the construction industry development in China. The im- pact was always positive whether it was from population urbanization or the construction industry development, but it showed obvious fluctuation situa- tion in the short term. The fluctuation situation of population urbanization and construction industry development were caused by their own factors, but the influence from each other was gradually strengthened over time, the dynamic relativity characteristics of them had very obvious lag effect.