石河子垦区人口增长预测与可持续发展研究

On Prediction of Population Growth and Sustainable Development in Shihezi

运用马尔萨斯模型和回归分析方法,根据《新疆生产建设兵团统计年鉴》统计数据,对石河子垦区2012～2030年的人口发展规模进行预测。预测结果为:到2020年石河子垦区人口达到62.247 6万,到2030年人口达到65.443 6万,随着人口的发展,石河子垦区矿产资源将面临轻微的短缺,水资源将面临严重短缺。

The development scale of population in Shihezi reclamation during 2012 - 2030 was predicted by using the method of Malthusian model and regression analysis according to Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps Statistical Yearbook. The results showed that the popula- tion will up to 622 476 in 2020 and 654 436 in 2030. With the growth of population, mineral resource exists a slight shortage and water re- source exists critical shortage in Shihezi reclamation.