危险化学品储罐溢流失效动态分析

Dynamic Failure Analysis on Hazardous Chemicals Storage Tank Overflow

危险化学品储罐溢流易引发火灾和爆炸事故。虽然传统的定量风险评估方法能辨识潜在危害,确保化工厂工艺单元的安全,但是它不能捕获工艺过程的波动或工厂变化引起的风险变化,这些变化往往是事故的主要原因。采用贝叶斯理论更新系统失效概率,首先采用事件树分析方法构建危险化学品储罐溢流的潜在场景;然后利用确定性方法估计三种可能后果的概率;最后,应用危险化学品储罐溢流事故十年的前兆数据,采用贝叶斯理论更新各场景的动态概率。实例分析表明,系统失效概率随着时间的推移整体上呈现上升趋势。

Storage tank overflow of hazardous chemicals can cause fire and explosi conventional quantitative risk assessment method may identify the potential hazards the process system, it fails to capture the variation of risks as deviations or changes i on accidents. Though and ensure safety of n the process and the chemical plant take place. Those deviations will result in incidents and near misses, and are identified as one of the main causes of many accidents. Bayesian theory was applied to update the failure probability of hazardous chemicals storage tank overflow. First, potential accident scenarios were represented in terms of an event tree. Next, the end - state probabilities were estimated using deterministic approach. Subsequent- ly, the failure probabilities of event tree end - state probabilities were revised using the available accident precursor data for ten years and Bayesian theory. Case study shows that there is the significant deviation in system failure frequency throughout the life time of the process unit.