基于生命周期和Logistic模型的产业集群发展阶段识别——一个物流产业集群案例研究

Identification of Development Stage of Industrial Clusters Based on Life Circle and Logistic Model:Case of A Typical Logistics Industrial Cluster

以产业集群生命周期理论和Logistic模型为基础,建立以企业数量为一维指标的产业集群发展阶段Logistic连续模型,通过采用黄金分割法、试位法以及Matlab软件和SAS软件,计算出模型中的参数,得出产业集群发展过程的关键时点,依此明确划分产业集群生命周期的四个阶段,可为产业集群相关利益者进行有关规划决策和采取措施提供依据。以长沙大托钢铁物流产业集群为例,对其生命周期的初长期、成长期、成熟期和衰退期进行了时序划分和预测。

In this paper, with the industrial cluster life circle theory and Logistic model as the basis, we established the continuous Logistic model of the development stages of industrial clusters with a one-dimensional index which was enterprise quantity, used a number of methods to calculate the parameters of the model, obtained the key time points in the development of the industrial clusters, and accordingly divided their life circle into four stages. At the end, in the case of the Changsha Datuo steel logistics industrial cluster, we predicted and divided the respective period of infancy, growth, maturity and decay of the industrial cluster.