水电站中长期优化调度风险分析及方法研究

Risk Analysis and Method Research in the Long-Term Reservoir Dynamic Probability Scheduling

本文针对水库调度的风险问题,将均值一次二阶矩法应用于水电站中长期调度的风险分析,并建立起风险分析模型。通过对万家寨水电站进行测试表明,该模型计算结果合理,能为风险决策提供合理可行的途径。

Aiming at the risk problem in reservoir operation,the algorithm of mean first order second moment is applied to study the current stage risk in long-term reservoir dynamic probability scheduling.The results of the tests in Wanjiazhai hydropower station show that the approach is feasible and applicable in scheduling decision.