漳泽水库入库径流变化趋势及影响因素分析

Analysis on the Inflow Runoff Variation Trends of Zhangze Reservoir and its Impact Factors

采用M—K（mann—kendall）统计检验方法对漳泽水库的入库径流变化趋势进行了分析，采用BG（bernaola—galvan）分割算法对其突变点进行了分析，并在此基础上对漳泽水库入库径流变化的影响因素进行了分析。分析结果表明，漳泽水库年入库径流以及汛期和非汛期入库径流均呈现出显著的衰减趋势；并且入库径流1977～1980年间发生了衰减突变，突变幅度大，1980年以后未发生显著变化，维持在较低水平；而且人类活动是漳泽水库入库径流减少的主要因素。漳泽水库入库径流的衰减加剧了当地的水资源供需矛盾，因此，应进一步对漳泽水库的调度方式进行研究以实现流域水资源的可持续利用。

The inflow runoff variation trends of Zhangze reservoir and its impact factors are studied in this paper. Firstly, the variation trends of the inflow runoff in Zhangze reservoir are analyzed using M-K test method, and the results show that the annual runoff in both flood season and non-flood season have a significant decreasing trend from 1961 to 2007. Secondly, the BG segmentation algorithm is applied to detect the abrupt changes of the runoff series. The runoff series present an abrupt reduction with large amplitude during 1977 to 1980 and no abrupt change since 1980. Final y, the human activities are the key factors causing the decrease of the inflow runoff in Zhangze reservoir. The decrease of the inflow runoff of Zhangze reservoir has been aggravating the contradiction between local water supply and demand. It ’s necessary to study the operation of Zhangze reservoir in order to achieve the sustainable utilization of the water resources.