金融市场化改革是否弱化了银行信贷渠道的效应

Does Financial Marketization Reform Weaken the Effect of Bank Credit Channel

本文在借鉴Driscoll(2004)的银行信贷供给冲击识别的方法基础之上,主要尝试验证了如下命题:中国的金融市场化改革,是否如理论预期的那样逐渐完善了金融市场,从而弱化了银行信贷渠道的效应?实证结果发现,虽然信贷渠道总体上是显著存在的,但信贷渠道的效应变化随改革时段不同而呈倒"U"形特征。深入的分析认为,倒"U"形关系表明中国的市场化进程在改革后期有减弱趋势,且金融市场化改革并未有效的催生金融创新。从金融改革的角度看,本文的意义主要在于两点:一是利率市场化改革是整体经济市场化改革的有机组成部分,单独推进利率市场化的效果是令人怀疑的;二是金融改革必须具有诱致金融创新的功能,不能有效促进金融创新的金融改革将无法改变实体经济对银行信贷的严重依赖性。

Considering the difficulty of indentifying the credit shock in the bank credit channel process, based on the Driscoll （2004）＇s idea, in this paper, we construct a new method to separate the credit supply shock in China. Then we give a proposition about the relationship between bank credit and output of China, and empiri- cally analyze the proposition, including the total amount and the period of time. The results show that from the reform, the credit channel is significant existing in general. However, for the financial market reform process in different period, the empirical results indicate that the relationship between credit and output is inverted ＂ U＂ shape. We think it should owe to the incomplete marketization reform of China, especially in the recent reform period, which the financial marketization reform did not lead to financial innovation. For the policy, the signifi- cance of this paper mainly lies in two points ： one is the interest rate marketization reform is a part of the whole economic marketization reform, so separate interest rate marketization is not feasible. The second is that a suc- cessful financial reform must have induced financial innovation function, otherwise, the real economy will heavi- ly reliance on the bank credit, if financial reform cannot effectively promote financial innovation.