碳排放核证减排量(CER)现货价格影响因素研究

The Study on the Impact Factors of Certified Carbon Emissions(CERs)Spot Markets

本文分析了清洁发展机制(Clean Development Mechanism)下的碳排放核证减排量(Certification Emission Reduction)现货价格的影响因素。基于向量误差修正(VEC)模型下的长短期因果检验,发现CER现货市场价格受到环境因素中宏观经济指标(工业生产指数)和气候指标(地表月均温度较基期的差异值)的正向影响,而且其受市场因素中期货价格的影响也较为显著。此外,本文还采用了脉冲响应函数对变量间的动态关系进行了分析。基于实证分析的结论及碳排放权交易市场的运行情况,建议我国在参与国际碳市场及建设国内碳市场的过程中,重点关注宏观环境和气候问题,并合理利用期货市场。

This paper concentrates on the analysis of impact factors of trading price of Certified Carbon Emis- sions （CERs） spot market under the Clean Development Mechanism （CDM）. Based on VEC model, the result shows that CER spot market is significantly influenced by the industry production index and the temperature in- dicator （land- surface temperature anomalies relative to the certain base） positively. In addition, we discov- ered that the CER spot market is also affected by the futures market. Additionally, impulse response function is introduced to analyze the relations among variables. Given the results and the current situations of both foreign and domestic carbon markets, it＇s suggested that China should take macroeconomic and climate issues into con- sideration and make full use of futures markets during the processes of participating in international carbon mar- kets and constructing national carbon market.