考虑风速相关性的电力系统可靠性评估

Reliability Assessment of Power System Considering Wind Speed Correlation

在研究风电并网对系统可靠性的影响中,风电场间的风速相关性是一个重要影响因素。首先,研究了电力系统可靠性统评估必要的相关模型;其次,为建立风电场间风速相关性的数学模型,研究了矩阵变换法并将其引入系统可靠性评估,用于定量模拟同一风带下具有一定相关性的多个风电场风况;最后,基于序贯蒙特卡罗模拟法研究了考虑风速相关性的电力系统可靠性评估流程。以IEEE-RTS79系统为例验证了本文所提模型的有效性,并分析不同风速相关程度下系统可靠性水平的变化情况。研究结果表明,风速相关性对系统可靠性有不利影响,考虑风速相关性将使评估结果更加准确可信。

Wind speed correlation between wind farms is an important factor influencing power system reliability. In this paper, essential models for reliability assessment of power system are studied firstly. Then, matrix transformation method is studied and introduced to power system reliability assessment to establish wind speed correlation model and simulate correlated wind regimes of certain wind farms quantitatively. Finally, the process of power system reliability assessment based on sequential Monte-Carlo simulation considering wind speed correlation is researched. Simulation is employed on the IEEE-RTS79 system to verify the effectiveness of the model, and reliability level of power system with different wind speed correlation degree is analyzed. Results show that wind speed correlation has an negative influence on system reliability. The evaluation results could be more accurate and credible if wind speed correlation is taken into consideration.