广西北部湾红树林生态承载力评价

Ecological capacity assessment of mangrove in Guangxi Beibu Gulf

为了定量分析广西北部湾红树林生态承载力在北部湾经济区开发前后的变化情况,选择珍珠湾、铁山港、钦州湾和廉州湾作为研究区域,利用RS、GIS技术,通过获取2004年、2006年、2008年和2010年遥感影像中的相关信息,结合状态空间模型以及红树林生态承载力评价指标体系,计算出相应年份的红树林生态承载力并分析其动态变化。同时分析了资源供给能力、生态系统弹性力、环境纳污能力以及人类活动潜力对红树林生态承载力影响的相关性。结果表明:广西北部湾红树林生态承载力整体呈上升趋势,生态系统弹性力和人类活动潜力总体呈上升趋势,资源供给能力和环境纳污能力总体呈下降趋势,说明北部湾经济区的发展主要对红树林的环境纳污能力造成了一定影响,而对红树林生态承载力影响不大。根据相关性分析结果可知,人类活动潜力是影响广西北部湾红树林生态承载力的主要因素。

In order to make a quantitative analysis about ecological capacity change of mangrove in the development of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone,Zhenzhu Bay,Tieshan Bay,Qinzhou Bay and Lianzhou Bay were chosen as study sites. The data of remote sensing images in2004,2006,2008 and 2010 were obtained by using RS and GIS techniques,combining the state-space model as well as the indicator system of ecological capacity assessment of mangrove. The changes of ecological capacity and the correlation about ecological capacity of mangrove with the resources supply,ecosystem resilience,environmental tolerance and human activities potential of mangrove were analyzed. The results showed that the trend of ecological capacity of mangrove improved gradually in Guangxi Beibu Gulf. Resources supply and environmental tolerance of mangrove declined gradually. Environmental tolerance was influenced by the development of Beibu Gulf Economic Zone,but the ecological capacity of mangrove was not influenced. The human activities potential is the key factor determining the ecological capacity of mangrove.