四川省水稻干旱灾害承灾体脆弱性研究

Study on vulnerability of drought hazard affected rice in Sichuan Province

承灾体脆弱性的高低对农业旱灾的大小起着关键的作用,降低承灾体的脆弱性是抗灾减灾的有效途径。以县级行政区域为单位,选取水稻效率指数、应灾能力指数、水稻暴露指数,构建了四川省水稻干旱灾害承灾体脆弱性指标评价体系;采用层次分析法确定指标权重,计算四川省水稻干旱灾害承灾体脆弱性指数;利用GIS空间分析功能,生成了四川省水稻干旱灾害承灾体脆弱性精细空间分布图。结果表明:四川省水稻干旱灾害承灾体脆弱性指数值I V>0.70的区域主要分布在川西高原的康定和马尔康西北部地区,I V<0.30的区域主要在川南西昌的西部。随着水稻生产效率和应灾能力的提高,全省I V<0.30的区域明显在增大,而在川西高原康定和马尔康的西北部,I V>0.70的区域在增大,主要是由该区域的水稻种植面积在加大,水稻暴露性指数在增大所造成。

The vulnerability of hazard-affected body is a key factor in the scale of agricultural drought. Therefore, reducing the vulnerability of hazard-affected body is a principal and effective way to prevent and mitigate disasters. Using rice efficiency index, disaster coping capacity index, and rice exposure index, this paper built a vulnerability index evaluation system of hazard-affected body’s of rice in Sichuan Province on county unit level, in which the index weight was determined using the analytic hierarchy process in calculating the vulnerability index, and A fine distribution map of drought vulnerability of rice was established for Sichuan Province using GIS spacial analysis function. The results show that, areas where the drought vulnerability index IV is greater than 0.70 are mainly distributed in the northwest of Kangding and Maerkang, while areas where IV is less than 0.30 are mainly located in the west of Xichang in the south of Sichuan Province. With the increase of rice production efficiency and disaster response capacity, the areas where IV is less than 0.30 are obviously increased. But in the northwest of Kangding and Maerkang, and the areas where IV is greater than 0.70 are on the increase. The main reason is due to the increases of rice-growing areas and the resultant of increased rice exposure index.