优化灰色GM(1,1)模型在黄河下游灾变预测中的应用

Application of Optimized Gray Model GM(1,1) in Disaster Prediction in the Lower Reaches of the Yellow River

针对灰色GM(1,1)模型精度不稳定的问题,对GM(1,1)模型的建模机理进行探讨,根据指数函数和线性函数的特性,利用分析技巧,提出了2类优化模型,并将此优化模型应用于黄河下游堤防工程坍塌险情灾变预测中.结果表明,2类优化模型均比原始GM(1,1)模型有较高的模拟和预测精度,为灾变预测提供了新思路.

Since the accuracy of model GM（ 1,1 ） is not steady, the modeling mechanism of model GM（ 1,1 ） is discussed. According to the characteristics of the exponential function and linear function, using analysis skills, two types of optimized gray models are pro-posed. Further, the optimized models are applied in predicting collapsed danger of embankment project in the lower reaches of the Yellow River. The results show that： two types of optimized gray models both have higher simulation and prediction accuracy than the original model, so it provides a new idea for the disaster prediction.