摘要
针对灰色GM(1,1)模型精度不稳定的问题,对GM(1,1)模型的建模机理进行探讨,根据指数函数和线性函数的特性,利用分析技巧,提出了2类优化模型,并将此优化模型应用于黄河下游堤防工程坍塌险情灾变预测中.结果表明,2类优化模型均比原始GM(1,1)模型有较高的模拟和预测精度,为灾变预测提供了新思路.
Since the accuracy of model GM( 1,1 ) is not steady, the modeling mechanism of model GM( 1,1 ) is discussed. According to the characteristics of the exponential function and linear function, using analysis skills, two types of optimized gray models are pro-posed. Further, the optimized models are applied in predicting collapsed danger of embankment project in the lower reaches of the Yellow River. The results show that: two types of optimized gray models both have higher simulation and prediction accuracy than the original model, so it provides a new idea for the disaster prediction.
出处
《华北水利水电学院学报》
2013年第5期116-119,共4页
North China Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71271086)
河南省科技厅软科学规划项目(112400450187)
河南省教育厅科学技术研究重点项目(13A790065)