昆明市能源消费碳排放变化的因素分解及对策研究

Research on influence factors and countermeasures of carbon emissions from energy consumption in Kunming City

随着昆明市社会经济的快速发展,能源消耗及环境问题日益严重,减少二氧化碳排放、建设低碳城市已成为昆明市可持续发展的关键.基于扩展的Kaya恒等式建立了因素分解模型,并应用对数平均Divisia指数方法(LMDI)对昆明市2005—2010年能源消费碳排放变化情况进行了分解分析.研究表明:现阶段昆明市能源消费碳排放最大的影响因素是经济产出规模,其贡献率达到155.76%;而能源效率仅次于经济产出呈现负效应,其贡献率为-87.68%;其它表现为正效应的影响因素分别为产业结构、人口规模、产业能源消费碳排放,其贡献率分别为14.36%、13.42%、4.13%."十二五"及未来一段时期,调整产业结构、优化能源结构、提高能源效率及发展碳汇项目是昆明市二氧化碳减排的重点任务,为昆明市低碳城市建设提供保障.

With the rapid development of social economy, energy consumptions have increased drastically in Kunming City and environmental pollution problems have been increasingly serious. Reducing carbon emissions and building a low-carbon city has become the key issue to the sustainable development of Kunming City. In this paper, a decomposition model based on the extended Kaya identity was established, and variations of carbon emission from 2005 to 2010 in Kunming were studied by using the LMDI method. Results of the study demonstrated that the economic scale effect, whose contribution ratio reached 155.76%, played a dominant role in carbon emission increase in Kunming. The contribution ratios of other effects, such as the energy efficiency effect, the industrial structure effect, the population size effect, and the carbon emission of industrial energy, were - 87.68%, 14.36%, 13.42% and 4.13%, respectively. In the period ahead, regulation of industrial structure, optimization of energy mix, improvement of energy efficiency, and development of carbon sink items will be the key tasks of carbon emission reduction in Kunming and will provide an effective support for low-carbon city construction.