基于ARDL-ECM的福建港口与经济动态关系实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Relationship between Port and Economy of Fujian Based on the ARDL- ECM

以1985—2011年福建港口和经济的发展数据作为样本,引入具有小样本稳健性的自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型,对福建港口和经济的长短期关系进行研究,构建误差修正模型。研究结果表明:无论是从长期和短期来看,福建港口发展和福建经济具有相互促进的关系,并切合福建省的实际给出对策建议。

Taking developmental data of port and economy of Fujian as a sample, ranging from 1985 to 2011, autoregressive dis- tributed lag （ARDL）model which has small sample and stability is introduced, to study the long and short term relationship be- tween port and economy of Fujian and construct error correction model. The results show that both in the long and short term, the development of Fujian port and Fujian economy have a relationship of mutual promotion. Then some advice is given according to the situation of Fujian province.