贸易数据的比较和比对

Comparison and Conciliation of Trade Data

本文以中美贸易统计为例,将贸易数据比较和比对研究上升到统计制度和方法的高度。重点是论证两国数据比较的国际可比基础,归纳和总结双边贸易数据比对的指标"中立"化法、差异溯因法、调增调减法和重点调查—样本比率估算法。最后对所研究问题的未来发展提出展望。

Taking trade statistics of China and the United States as empirical cases, this paper raises data comparison and conciliation to a high degree of statistical rules and methods. Its emphasis is to demonstrate the international comparability of the two countries＇ data, to sum up and conclude the methods used in bilateral trade data conciliation, which mainly covers indicator-neutralization method, difference-cause-seeking method, plus-or-minus adjustment method, estimation method with sample ratio based on key-commodities investigation. Finally, it looks forward to the future development of the problems.