我国大中城市住房市场的价量相关性

Study on Price-volume Correlation Mechanism in the Chinese Housing Market

本文在分析住房市场价量关系经验和理论的基础上,通过构建VAR模型,对35个大中城市住房市场价格和交易量的相关性以及相互作用进行了实证研究;然后考虑限购政策对价量的影响,分析限购前后价量相关系数和Granger关系的变化;最后,通过拟合成分分析,找出价量相关性的主导因素。研究结果显示,我国大部分沿海发达城市,住房市场存在由滞后的价格变化导致的价量正相关关系,其根本原因是首付款增强效应和价格预期作用,这表明限购政策对于抑制我国城市住房市场的价格增长有一定效果,但对价量互动关系影响不大。

Based on the evidence and theories of housing price-volume correlation, this paper empirically analyzed housing price-volume correlation and interaction in 35 metropolitans in China by using VAR model. This paper also demonstrated the changes of relation between correlation coefficient and Granger by eonsidering the effects of the house purchase limit policy on housing price and volume. Finally, the authors explored the main factors of price-volume correlation. The results showed that there were positive correlations exist induced by lagged price dynamics in most Chinese costal developed cities. The underlying reasons were down-payment effect and price anticipation. It indicated house purchase limit policy was effective to restrain the rise of house price. But it is difficult to change the price-volume interaction.