湖南省农村金融发展与农村经济增长的实证分析

Empirical Research on Financial Development and Economic Growth in Hunan Rural Areas

采用ADF单位根检验、协整、格兰杰因果检验等计量方法,运用湖南省1995—2011年农村经济增长数据和有关金融数据,分析湖南省农村金融发展与农村经济增长之间的关系。结果表明,湖南省农村存在协整关系,长期均衡。而格兰杰因果关系检验显示出金融发展引领经济增长的单向因果关系,相应支持了金融支撑经济增长的概念。说明湖南省农村金融发展与经济增长是明显的"供给领先"的关系,必须采取相应解决措施加以转变。

Based on the methods of ADF unit root test,co-integration analysis and Granger causality test,as well as data from 1995 to 2011 of Hunan Province,this paper makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between rural finance development and rural economic growth .The result shows the first one is that there is an co-integration relationship between rural financial development and economic growth in a long-time stably equilibrium.The second one is there is a one-way causal relationship between them that financial development promotes economic growth,supporting the conception that financial development promotes economic growth.It illustrates that financial-supply-leading plays a leading role of economic growth .Some measures should be put forward.