摘要
辽宁省现有测站春播期土壤相对湿度数据存在不连续性及长时间序列缺失问题。以海城站为例,通过分析现有土壤相对湿度(0—20 cm)与气象因子及临近站点土壤相对湿度的相关关系,构建海城春播期土壤相对湿度统计回归模型,模拟缺测时段春播期土壤相对湿度。进而以此方法重建1981—2012年辽宁省20个观测站春播期土壤相对湿度月尺度数据。结果表明:海城土壤相对湿度与降水量和秋季封冻雨关联较大,相关系数分别超过0.60和0.30,与同期临近站点本溪站土壤相对湿度相关性也超过0.40,依据该3要素构建的4月和5月土壤相对湿度统计回归模型复相关系数R2分别为0.79和0.77,模拟结果与实测资料平均相对误差为2.6%,模拟效果较好;对辽宁省其他数据缺失站点构建的回归模型复相关系数均高于0.50,模型拟合精度优于85%,拟合值和实测值平均相对误差控制在15%以内,较好完成了1981—2012年辽宁省20个测站春播期土壤相对湿度月尺度数据重建。
There are some problems of missing data or discontinuity in long-time series of soil relative humidity data obtained from the observational stations during the spring sowing in Liaoning province.Using the soil relative humidity records from Haicheng observational station as a case study,the relationship between soil relative humidity (0-20 cm) and meteorological factors,relative humidity from the surrounding weather stations was analyzed.A statistical regression model for the construction of monthly soil relative humidity during the spring sowing period was established,and missing soil relative humidity data were simulated using the above method.Meanwhile,the monthly soil relative humidity data during the spring sowing period from 1981 to 2012 in 20 observational stations in Liaoning province were rebuilt.The results indicate that soil relative humidity in Haicheng observational station is significantly correlated with local rainfall and the last precipitation before freezing up in autumn,and the multiple correlation coefficients are over 0.60 and 0.30,respectively.The correlation coefficient of soil relative humidity between Haicheng and Benxi observational stations is over 0.40.A regression model on soil relative humidity in April and May is established by the above three elements,and its multiple correlation coefficients are 0.79 and 0.77,respectively.The mean relative error is 2.6% between simulated and observational values.The multiple correlation coefficient of the model established by the other loss data in Liaoning province is over 0.50,and the fitting precision is higher than 85%.The mean relative error is within 15% between simulated and observed values.The rebuilding of monthly soil relative humidity during spring sowing for 20 stations in Liaoning province during 1981 to 2012 is reasonable.
出处
《气象与环境学报》
2013年第5期81-85,共5页
Journal of Meteorology and Environment
基金
公益性行业科研专项"东北地区土壤墒情监测预报及其对主要农作物的影响分析"(GYHY201106026)资助
关键词
土壤相对湿度
春播期
回归模型
数据重建
Soil relative humidity
Spring sowing period
Regression model
Data rebuilding