基于暑热指数的河北省中暑气象等级预报指标研究

Study on forecast element of heat stroke weather grade based on hotness index in Hebei province

为有效开展高温中暑气象预报,对河北省中暑病例资料与气象条件进行了分析,确定了河北省可能发生中暑的日最高气温临界最低指标,建立了基于温湿度组合的暑热指数计算公式,依据日最高气温、暑热指数及其持续时间将中暑气象等级划分为四级,并依据不同等级对人体的影响,确定了不同等级的防范提示建议用语。从多地气象条件、中暑病例、分级指标应用三个方面对指标划分的合理性进行检验。结果表明:等级预报指标划分与河北省夏季气候分布特征相一致;中暑病例97%以上发生在极易中暑和易发生中暑级别;分级指标应用试报检验预报准确率达到81.2%。该指标对河北省中暑气象等级预报服务业务开展及公众有效防范中暑具有较好的指导性。

In order to forecast heat stroke weather effectively,the heat stroke cases and meteorological conditions were analyzed in Hebei province.The critical index of the daily maximum air temperature which may cause heat stroke was determined,and a formula of hotness index was established based on temperature and humidity.The heat stroke weather grades were divided into four levels by the daily maximum air temperature,hotness index and its duration.According to the effect of heat stroke on human health,some suggestions for different grades were given.Furthermore,the rationality of grade division was tested by meteorological conditions,the heat stroke cases and application of graded index.The results show the forecast index of heat stroke grades is consistent with summer climate distribution characteristics in Hebei province.More than 97 ％ of heat stroke cases occur in the first or second grades of heat stroke.The forecast accuracy rate of grade index reaches 81.2 ％.The index has well indicative to forecast heat stroke weather and prevent heat stroke effectively.