PLAM指数跟踪方法对中国沙尘天气过程及其波动变化特征的研究

Sand dust weather and its variation in China based on PLAM index tracking method

采用1980—2011年气象台站地面气象要素观测资料、高空探空资料,时间和空间加密气象观测站资料,以及中国气象档案馆原始天气图表等资料,基于沙尘气溶胶浓度(PM10)潜势源地贡献函数PSCF(Potential Source Contribution Function)的沙尘系统追踪方法,发展空气质量气象条件指数PLAM(Parameters Linking Air-quality and Meteorology)对沙尘天气过程的路径跟踪,给出1980—2011年东北亚沙尘天气过程特征分布;采用Spline趋势分析,讨论沙尘天气系统强度的年度变化特征。结果表明:基于气溶胶浓度PSCF函数和气象条件指数PLAM追踪得出,中国和东亚地区沙尘天气过程年际强度变化并非单调减弱,其具有历史持续性与转折突变性并存的波状变化趋势,出现准10 a的高低频活动特征。

Using the meteorological observational data from automatic weather stations and intensive weather stations,the radiosonde data,the weather charts and so on,the tracking analysis of sand-dust weather was developed by the PLAM （parameters of air quality and meteorology） index based on the sand dust deposited PSCF （potential source contribution function） method.A spline trend analysis method was also used to investigate the strength variability of the SDS systems.The distributions of sand dust weather from 1980 to 2011 in North-East Asia region were presented.The annual variation of sand dust weather process was studied using a spline trend analysis method.The results show that the annual intensity variation of sand dust weather process is not in a monotonously decreasing trend and it has a wave change status with both a historical persistence and abrupt transition.Meanwhile,it has a 10 years high-low oscillation.