春灌期气象条件对河北省南网日用电负荷峰值的影响

Impact of meteorological conditions on the peak load in southern Hebei power system during spring irrigation

采用2007—2010年河北省南部电网日用电负荷峰值数据和逐日气象观测资料,分析河北省南部电网日用电负荷峰值的年分布特征和春灌期逐日变化特征。结果表明:河北省南部电网日用电负荷峰值每年呈现出"三高峰,两低谷"的特征,高峰分别对应河北省春灌、夏季高温和冬季采暖前后;用电低谷出现在春节和国庆假期。冬小麦的返青水和棉花白地浇灌对用电负荷影响显著。区域性强风和降雨会造成用电负荷峰值明显下降。将春灌期日用电负荷峰值变化幅度进行等级划分。运用相关分析法和多元回归方法,分析春灌期日用电负荷峰值变化幅度与气象因子的相关关系,建立基于气象条件的河北南网全区日用电负荷峰值变化幅度的预报模型,经检验,该模型在日常电力调度业务中具有应用价值。

Based on the peak load data and the daily meteorological observational data from 2007 to 2010 in the southern Hebei province,the annual and daily variations of the peak load were analyzed.The results show that the trend curve of the peak load has three peaks and two valleys.Three peak loads appear in the spring irrigation period,the summer high temperature period and before and after the winter heating period,while two low valleys are in the spring festival of China and from October 1 to 7.The three irrigations of winter wheat had a significant effect on the peak load.The regional strong wind and rainfall could make the peak load decreased obviously.The grades of daily peak load are divided based on its variation amplitude.The relationship between peak load and meteorological factors was analyzed using methods of a correlation analysis and a multiple regression analysis,and a forecast model is established.This model is favorable to adjust the routine electric power according to the practical test.