基于VAR的河北省经济增长实证分析

Empirical Analysis on Economic Growth of Hebei Province Based on VAR

近几年,河北对外贸易的快速发展对推动经济增长起到了十分重要的作用。根据VAR模型、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数、方差分解,利用河北省1989—2011年统计数据,对河北省对外贸易、消费、国有固定资产投资和经济增长的关系进行了实证分析。实证结果表明,投资和GDP互为格兰杰因果关系、消费是GDP的格兰杰原因,出口和消费是投资的格兰杰原因。但出口不是GDP的格兰杰原因。用脉冲响应函数和方差分解研究出口、消费、投资和进口对GDP的冲击,消费对经济有一个持久较强的拉动作用,但有一个时滞。

In recent years,the rapid development of Hebei＇s foreign trade plays an important role in promoting the economic development.According to the model VAR,Granger causality test,impulse response function and variance decomposition,this paper makes an empirical analysis on the relationship among Hebei＇s foreign trade,consumption,state-owned fixed assets investment and economic growth,the results of which show that there are Granger causal relationship between the investment and GDP,the consumption is is the Granger reason of GDP,and the export and consumption are the Granger reasons of investment,however the export is not the Granger reason of GDP,should use the impulse response function and variance decomposition to study the impact of the export,consumption,investment and import on GDP,the consumption has a durable and strong pulling effect on the economy,but there is a delay.