基于分等成果的农用地粮食综合生产潜力分区研究——以天津市为例

Study on the Comprehensive Grain Potential Regionalization Based on the Research Outputs of Farmland Grading——With Tianjin as Example

利用农用地分等成果的光温潜力指数、自然质量等指数、利用等指数为基本数据,采用综合比较优势指数法和聚类分析方法,分析了天津市区域农用地粮食综合生产潜力格局,结果表明:天津市12个区县农用地可划分为Ⅰ高潜力—近期易挖掘区、Ⅱ高潜力—远期可挖掘区、Ⅲ低潜力—近期易挖掘区、Ⅳ低潜力—远期难挖掘区4个粮食综合生产潜力区;农用地规模优势指数对农用地粮食综合生产潜力优势指数具有较强正效应,保持和增加一定数量农用地面积是保证区域农用地粮食综合生产能力的基础。

With light and temperature potential index, nature quality, utilization of grading results as basic data, adopting comprehensive comparative advantage index method and clustering analysis, the comprehensive grain production potential pattern in Tianjin was analyzed. 12 counties were divided into 4 districts： I high-potential-easy mining in recent time district; II high-potential-potential mining in long term dis- trict; III low-potential-easy mining in recent time district; IV low-potential-potential mining in long term district. From the study results, we also find out that the Scale Advantage Indices of farmland （SAI） has a strong positive effect on the Aggregated Advantage Indices of grain po- tential （AAI）, so we conclude that it is more basic to maintain and increase a certain amount of farmland area to ensure the regional grain pro- duction capacity.