近50a伊犁河谷≥0℃和≥10℃期间降水量的时空变化特征分析

The Analysis Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics about the Period Precipitation of ≥0℃ and ≥10℃ in Hi River Basin in Recent 50 Years

[目的]了解伊犁河谷降水量变化特征,为农业灌溉措施的制定提供理论依据.[方法]以伊犁河谷10个站1961 ～2010年≥0℃和≥10℃期间的降水量为资料,运用线性趋势分析、累积距平和t-检验、Kriging空间插值等方法,分析伊犁河谷近50 a≥0℃期间和≥10℃期间的降水量的年际变化、年代际变化、空间分布及空间变化的特征.[结果]近50 a伊犁河谷≥0℃期间和≥10℃期间降水量均呈增加趋势,倾向率分别为14.7和11.2 mm/10 a,均在1998年发生了突变.在空间上,降水量呈现平原少,山区多的分布格局.从变化的倾向率来看,≥0℃期间降水量在丘陵地区和平原地区的变化趋势比山间盆地明显,而≥10℃期间降水量表现为山间盆地和丘陵地区比平原地区的变化明显.[结论]伊犁河谷近50 a≥0℃期间,尤其是≥10℃期间降水量的增加无疑对伊犁河谷旱地农业的增产具有极大地的促进作用.

[ Objective] The project＇s aim was to understand variation characteristics of precipitation and provide theoretical guidance for the formulation of agricultural irrigation methods. [ Method ] Based on data from 10 weather stations in Ill River Basin between 1961 and 2010, the spatial - temporal patterns of the peri- od precipitation of ≥0℃ and ≥10℃ in this area in recent 50 years were analyzed by using the methods of lin- ear regressions ,t - test and spatial interpolation method. [ Result] The period precipitation at a rate of 14.7 mm/10a and 11.2 mm/10a, the variations all happened in 1998. In spatial distribution, the intermontane ba- sin precipitation is richer than that in the valley plain. Judging from the trend rate, the trend rate of the period precipitation of ≥0℃ in hilly areas and valley plain are is more obvious than intermontanee basin. But the trend rate of the period precipitation of ≥10℃ in hilly areas and intermontanee basin are is more obvious than valley plain. [ Conclusion ] The increase of the period precipitation , particularly the period precipitation of≥10℃ is good to for dry -land agriculture.