风险评估体系在铁路选线中的应用

Application of Risk Assessment System in Route Selection of Railway

传统铁路选线设计,是通过定性分析各种影响线路方案的风险因素来判断方案的优劣,方案决策很大程度上受限于技术人员的实际经验和技术水平。因此,在铁路选线设计中引入风险评估思想,通过建立风险评估体系,将选线设计中各风险影响因素对方案决策目标影响程度进行量化,从而对各风险点有更为客观、准确的认识。然后,将方案风险总值及风险处理费用纳入方案技术经济比选范围,进而为线路方案决策提供更为准确、可靠的参考数据,同时达到从源头上规避或降低工程风险的效果。

Whether the route selection design scheme of traditional railway is good or not is estimated by qualitative anal- ysis of various risk factors affecting the route scheme. Scheme decision is largely limited by actual experience and techni- cal level of the designers. Therefore, risk assessment idea is introduced in the route selection design of railway. Through establishment of risk assessment system, the influence degree of various risk factors on decision of railway route selection scheme is quantified so as to more objectively and accurately know the risk points. Afterwards, the total risk and risk handling expense are brought into the technical and economical comparison to provide more accurate and reliable refer- ence data for scheme decisions and simultaneously avoid or reduce the engineering risk from the sources.