2011—2012年济宁市传染病自动预警信息系统运行状况分析

Analysis on the Running of Infectious Diseases Automated- alert and Response System in Jining City from 2011 to 2012

目的分析2011—2012年传染病自动预警系统在济宁市运行情况。方法利用统计描述、χ2检验等方法对2011—2012年济宁市传染病自动预警监测数据进行分析评价。结果 2011—2012年单病种预警236次,响应及时率为60.17%(142/236);时间序列预警2 043次,响应及时率为87.07%(1 779/2 043),时间序列预警响应及时率高于单病种预警(χ2=115.69,P<0.01)。不同地区单病种预警响应及时率及时间序列预警响应及时率比较,差异均有统计学意义(χ2=38.94,P<0.01;χ2=257.24,P<0.01)。病种预警次数前5位的是其他感染性腹泻病、流行性腮腺炎、手足口病、麻疹和流行性感冒。2011—2012年济宁市传染病自动预警信息系统共发出预警信号2 279次;初步判断排除事件2 206起,疑似事件73起,经现场调查确认传染病暴发事件11起,预警信号阳性率为0.48%。预警信号数前5位的县市区为任城区、嘉祥县、梁山县、金乡县、邹城市。结论济宁市传染病预警系统运行基本良好,初步实现暴发疫情早期预警的能力,但预警信号阳性率较低,疾病预防控制机构响应及时性需要提高。

Objective To analyze the running of Infectious Diseases Automated - alert and Response System （CIDARS） in Jining city from 2011 to 2012 in order to improve its quality. Methods Statistical description, ehi - square test and other methods were used to analyze and evaluate the data of the CIDARS from 2011 to 2012. Results From 2011 to 2012, a total of 2 279 signals were generated in Jining city on 14 kinds of infectious diseases in the system, with a positive rate of 0. 48%. Among them, 236 were single disease warnings＇＊with a response timeliness ratio of 60. 17% （142/236） ; 2 043 were time series warning with a response timeliness ratio of 87.07% （ 1 779/2 043） . The difference was statistically significant （X2 = 115.69, P 〈0. O1 ） . The single disease response timeliness ratio and time series response timeliness ratio between different areas both showed statistically significant differences （）t？ = 38.94, P 〈 0. 01 ; X~ = 257.24, P 〈 0. 01 ） . The top 5 diseases of early warn- ings were infectious diarrhea, mumps, hand, foot and mouth disease, measles and influenza. The top 5 counties with the most warnings were Reneheng County, Jiaxiang County, Liangshan County, Jinxiang County and Zoucheng City. Conclusion The performance of communicable disease automatic early - warning system is fairly good in Jining city, and it has realized the goal of early warning for the outbreak of disease to some degree, but the positive rate of early warning signal is still low, and it needs further improvement.