碳税政策的经济效应:“双重红利假设”在广东的实证检验

The Economic Effects of Carbon Tax Policy: An Empirical Study on “Double Dividend Hypothesis” in Guangdong

利用VAR模型的脉冲响应函数,实证模拟广东省开征碳税并补贴低碳行业的"中性"税收政策对高碳、低碳行业的产出和就业的影响,研究结论与ILO(2009)以欧洲9个代表性国家为研究对象的结论较为相似,与陆旸(2011)基于全国整体研究的结论有较大不同。研究结果表明:(1)该税收政策在短期内对高碳行业的产出有负向影响,但长期来看影响程度较小;(2)同样的税收政策对低碳行业的产出有显著的正向影响,但影响随时间推移而变弱;(3)广东存在实现减排和促进就业的"双重红利",且就业效应在低碳行业表现得尤为明显。由此,碳税的开征要结合各地具体的发展阶段和产业结构等背景,同时地方政府应出台相应的配套措施;碳税税率应先低后高、分阶段实施。

In this paper, we use the impulse response function of the VAR model, empirically simulate a ＂neutral＂ tax policy that imposing carbon tax and subsidizing low -carbon industry in Guangdong Province, inspect the effects on output and employment of high - carbon and low - carbon industry. The conclusions are some similar to the study of ILO （2009） , which is based on 9 representative country in Europe, whereas, it is quite different from the study of Lu Yang （ 2011 ） , which is based on the entire country （China）. The results show that： （1） In the short term, the tax policy has a negative impact on the output of carbon industry, but in the long term the extent of impact will be less ; （2） Under the same tax policy, there is significant positive effect on the output of low - carbon industry, but the effect weakens over time; （3） The ＂double dividend＂ the mitigation of CO2 emissions and stimulation of employment creation, happens in Guangdong, furthermore, the employment effects is more obvious in low - carbon industry. We put forward these suggestions： Imposing carbon tax should consider the development stage and the industrial structure of different regions, simultaneously, local governments should publish corresponding supporting measures; the rates of carbon tax should be formulated in accordance with the principle from low to high.