90年代中国利率与储蓄变动关系的实证分析

A Positive Analysis of the Alteration Relations between Interest Rates and Savings in China in the 1990's

我国90年代改革的深化，居民开始由短期收入、消费和储蓄均衡转向长期收入、消费和储蓄均衡。在此背景下，储蓄更多地受名义利率的影响，实质是更多地受通货膨胀率的影响。我们不能为储蓄转化创造通货膨胀，且利率下调空间已十分有限，因此，储蓄转化的应对措施可以是：扩展居民储蓄空间，拓展银行业务空间和拓展人力资源资本化的渠道。

The author holds that residents started to be from the equilibrium of short-term incomes,consumption and savings to that of long-term incomes, consumption and savings with the deepened reform from 1990's in China. Under such a background, the nominal interest rate had an effect on savings, and on the contrary, the inflation rate had a substantial effect on savings.Furthermore, savings transformation should not be turned into inflation, and the space of lowering the interest rate is much limited. Consequently, the countermeasures of savings transformation should be conducted, such as widening the space of the residents' savings, the banking business and the channels of human resources capitalization.