中国碳排放强度的行业差异与动因分析

Analysis on Industrial Difference and Motivation Factor of Carbon Emission Intensity

测算了1995—2010年中国各行业的碳排放强度,并采用行业分解方法分析了各行业对中国碳排放强度的影响.结果表明:工业碳排放对总体碳排放强度下降起主导作用,对其下降的贡献率为73.35%;其他服务业次之,贡献率为22.68%;农业、交通运输业、商业和建筑业贡献率较低,分别为1.38%、1.22%、1.17%、0.20%.采用泰尔指数对中国碳排放强度进行行业差异分析发现,1995—2010年中国各行业碳排放强度泰尔指数从0.392 7升至0.488 9,行业间碳排放强度的差异呈扩大趋势.运用差值因素分解模型分析中国碳排放强度变化动因发现,在1995—2010年中国碳排放强度的下降中,技术效应具有促进作用,贡献率为104.64%;结构效应具有抑制作用,贡献率为-4.64%.未来宜从优化产业结构、加快技术研发和应用等方面降低碳排放强度.

In recent years, carbon emissions have been gradually realized to be a complex issue involving in international economy, trade and politics. This paper analyzed the industrial differences and their motivation factors of carbon emission intensities and researched their contribution rates to changes of carbon emission intensities. Firstly, the paper calculated carbon emission intensities of all industries of China from 1995 to 2010 using a calculation method and carbon emission coefficients adopted from the IPCC （2006）. Results showed that industrial carbon emission plays an important role in carbon emissions intensity＇s decline with a declining contribution rate of 73.35% , followed by other service industries with a declining contribution rate of 22.68% ; Compared with the low declining contribution rates of agriculture, transportation, business, and construction industries, which were 1.38% , 1.22% , 1.17% and 0. 20% , respectively. Secondly, we analyzed industrial differences of carbon emission intensity by Theil index. The result showed that Theil index of carbon emission intensity changed from 0. 3927 to 0. 4889 from 1995 to 2010, which indicated that differences of carbon emission intensity among various industries tended to be enlarged. The expanding differences had inhibitory effects on the decline of Chinese carbon emission intensity. Then the paper probed carbon emission intensity＇s changes by difference factors decomposition model, and finds that technology effect was the driving factor and contributed 104. 64% to the decline of Chinese carbon emission intensity from 1995 to 2010. On the other hand, structure effect was the inhibition one and contributed -4.64%. Finally, some suggestions such as optimizing industrial structures, speeding up technology research and development and so on were put forward to reduce carbon emission intensity in China.