中国能源消费强度及节能潜力研究

Study on China's Energy Consumption Intensity and the Potential of Energy Saving

使用指数因素分析方法分析我国1991年—2010年产业结构调整和各行业能源利用效率变动对能源消费强度及节能量的影响,结果发现:1990年以来,我国能源消费强度下降是产业结构变动和各行业能源利用效率提高综合作用的结果,其中,效率变动起决定性作用;从各行业贡献来看,工业结构和效率变化远高于其他行业,是影响能源消费强度的主要部门;能源消费强度下降导致的节能总量绝大部分来自效率节能。鉴于此,短期内应利用技术、市场和行政等手段提高工业,尤其是重化工业的能源利用效率,一定程度上可实现节能目标。

Index-factor analysis is employed to divide the change of energy consumption intensity into structure share and efficiency share, and the impact of industrial restructuring and change in industrial energy efficiency on China energy consumption intensity and energy saving is analyzed. The result shows that, after 1990, the decline of the energy consumption intensity is mainly affected by the changes in internal structure and efficiency of the industrial sector, and the efficiency share of energy consumption intensity is a crucial factor. For the influence to different in- dustries, the structure share and efficiency share of industry are exceed other industries ; it is the crucial industry of affecting energy consumption intensity. The energy saving come from efficiency saving. Therefore, the technology, market and administrative measures should be used to improve industrial energy efficiency in the short term, espe- cially the heavy chemical industry＇s energy efficiency, and this could achieve energy saving goal to a certain extent.