中国存在无就业增长吗?——来自工业两位数行业的证据

Does Jobless Growth Exist in China——Evidence from Two Digital Industrial Data

通过采用陈诗一[1]估算的中国两位数工业行业数据和World Bank[2]提出的就业创造和增长分解工具,本文对中国两位数工业行业内是否存在无就业增长的问题进行了检验,并通过分解分析对可能的原因进行了探索。结论显示:(1)中国两位数工业行业总体上存在无就业增长的情形,但结构上具有行业差异。(2)劳均产出变化解释了中国工业两位数行业增加值80.94%的总体增长率,是劳均产业增加值的变动的决定性因素。(3)劳动者供给数量变动和跨部门配置对劳均产出增长分别具有11.05%和7.79%的解释力,但就业岗位在此过程中却逆向减少9.74%。提升劳动者技术能力,继续推动劳动力市场的完善,以及减少劳动力配置的制度障碍,是有效平衡劳动生产率提升和劳动就业岗位创造的可行路径。

This paper tests the hypothesis that whether jobless growth exists in China using the estimated two digital in- dustrial data from Shiyi Chen and tool named JoGGs from World Bank. Possible reasons are also explored by decomposition a- na｜ysis. The resuhs show that： （1）jobless growth does exist in China two digital industries, while structurally differences ap- pear in certain industrials. （2） output per capita contributes dominantly 80.94% to the overall growth in the two digital indus~ trial. （3） the amount of labor supply and cross sectors allocations explain 11.05% and 7.79% to the output per capita re- spectively, while job openings shrived 9. 74%. Enhancing labor＇s abilities, perfecting the labor markets as well as removing the barriers that hinder the labor allocation are feasible solutions to promote the labors＇ productivity and enlarge the job posts.