我国行业关联与经济波动的实证研究

An Empirical Study of Industrial Correlations and Economic Fluctuations in China

在新一轮经济周期中,有关行业网络结构和级联效应的宏观经济理论正在逐步兴起,分析我国1987年到2010年的行业结构图,并实证检验行业关联与经济波动的关系,结果表明:我国行业结构具有明显的网络特征,且行业关联越来越趋于紧密;行业内在"看不见"的关联要比直接"看得见"的关联重要;在行业内在关联中,影响力系数大的行业后向关联效应较弱,不能拉动经济的持续增长,而感应度系数大的行业通过前向关联效应,能够成为行业网络中的"结点",其关联度增加能够显著促进经济增长。

The macroeconomic theory of industry network structure and cascade effect is springing up in a new round of economic cycle. By analyzing the industrial structure from 1987 to 2010 and an empirical test between industrial correlations and economic fluctuations, this paper has found some results. Firstly, the industrial structure of China has become tighter in the recently twenty years and this trend performed in service industry is more prominent. Secondly, the inner invisible linkage is more important than the directly visible linkage. Last but not least, the industries of big influence coefficient cannot pull economic growth sustainably because of their weak backward linkages in the inner relationship test; while the industries of big response coefficient industries can become the industrial network nodes via strong forward linkages, which give an obvious contribution to economic growth.