天然气消费及居民消费水平对二氧化碳排放量的影响研究——基于VAR模型的分析

The Impact Study of Gas Consumption and Residents' Consumption Level to Carbon Dioxide Emissions Based on VAR Model

运用我国1980年到2010年的居民消费水平、天然气消费及二氧化碳排放量数据建立向量自回归模型。经过脉冲响应函数及方差分析后,对模型考察发现,居民消费水平及天然气消费对二氧化碳排放量均有显著的作用效果,具有一定程度的影响,并产生不同的长期影响效果。根据居民消费水平及天然气消费对二氧化碳的影响,得出结论。

Using the data of China＇s residents consumption level, natural gas consumption and CO2 emissions between 1980 and 2010, to establish vector autoregressive model. After the impulse response function and variance analysis, we found that residents consumption level and gas consumption all have significant effects on carbon dioxide emissions and the effects are different and long-term. According to the residents consumption level＇s and natural gas consumption＇s influence to the carbon dioxide, we draw the conclusion.