撞击极限方程预测指标剖析与实例

Analysis and Instances of Ballistic Limit Equations' Predictive Indicators

撞击极限方程是空间碎片撞击航天器风险评估的关键技术基础,描述其预测能力的预测指标有多种提法,这给依据预测指标进行撞击极限方程选择时带来较大困惑。通过对以预测概率为基础的预测正确率(包括未失效、失效、总体和安全预测正确率)和以预测直径偏差为基础的预测误差(包括绝对和相对误差)等指标的概念表述,初步规范了各指标的解析表达式,阐述了其性质、取值范围、相互关系等问题。据此,以蜂窝夹层板结构为研究对象,基于国外的131个撞击失效/未失效物理实验数据,对各预测指标在撞击极限方程系数空间上的变化特征作了进一步阐述。结果表明,预测正确率指标在系数空间跳跃变化,而预测误差指标则光滑过渡。

Ballistic limit equations are the key technology foundation of spacecraft impact risk assessment from space deb- ris. There is a variety of formulations in describing the predictive indicators about their predictive ability, which often causes confusion in selecting ballistic limit equations in accordance with the predictive indicators. By analyzing the concepts of the indicators, such as correctly predicted rates （including the correctly predicted rates of non-failure, failure, totality and safe- ty） which are based on predicted probability, and prediction errors （including absolute and relative errors） which are based on predicted diameter deviation, the analytical expressions of the indicators are initially standardized, and the properties, value range and relationship between them are expounded, too. Accordingly, keeping the honeycomb sandwich panel struc- ture as the study object and basing on 131 failure/non-failure impact physical experimental case data（, from reference）, the variation of each predictive indicator in the coefficient space of the ballistic limit equation is further elaborated. The results show that the transitions of the correctly predicted rate indicators are stepped, but the transitions of the prediction error indi- cators are smooth in the coefficient space.