基于改进的群组AHP和Vague集的水资源工程投资决策研究

Investment Decision of Water Resources Engineering Based on Improved Group AHP and Vague Set

首先从经济效益角度出发,建立了水资源工程投资评价指标,提出了基于改进的群组AHP和Vague集的水资源工程投资决策评价模型;其次改进了群组层次分析法,利用聚类分析方法将专家分类,由类内专家的数量确定专家类别间权重,再根据排序向量到类核心的距离和专家判断矩阵一致性计算专家最后权重,利用加权平均方法确定各指标的权重,克服群内专家判断矩阵一致性相同时无法区分专家权重的问题;最后利用Vague集的排序函数来确定最佳方案,并进行了实例分析,验证了模型的可行性,为水资源工程投资决策提供了一种有效的方法。

From the economic perspective, the investment evaluation index of water resources engineering is established, and the evaluation model of water resources engineering investment based on improved group AHP model and vague set is put forward. Secondly, the group AHP method is improved, and experts are classified into different clusters by clustering analysis. Meanwhile, the weight of a cluster is determined according to the expert numbers in the cluster. The final weight is determined by the distance between the ranking vector and the core and the consistency of the judgment matrix The weight of each index is determined using the weighted average method. The improved group AHP method overcomes the problem of poor distinguish between expert weights in one cluster when judgment matrix consistency is identical. Finally, the optimal scheme is determined by the sort function of vague sets. An example is taken to show the feasibility of the model. The study provides a feasibility method for investment decision of water resources engineering.