中国农村水贫困和经济贫困的时空耦合关系研究

Spatial-Temporal Coupling Between Rural Water Poverty and Economic Poverty in China

构建适于中国农村的水贫困与经济贫困评价体系,经过主客观综合权重法赋权后,对1995-2011年间31省(自治区、直辖市)农村地区的水贫困与经济贫困水平进行评价。通过非线性回归拟合,验证了31省(自治区、直辖市)农村水贫困与经济贫困之间存在共生关系。通过构建农村水贫困与农村经济贫困的耦合度模型,测算出两者的历年耦合程度;在此基础上,分4个时间阶段观察与分析17年间农村水贫困和农村经济贫困时空耦合关系。计算结果表明,全国范围内各阶段水贫困与经济贫困处于极度耦合的农村地区占一半以上;呈极度耦合的农村地区在增加,低度耦合的地区数在减少;各地区的耦合状态波动幅度和波动趋势多样性显著。据此,提出治理农村经济贫困和水贫困的相关对策建议,以期为中国"三农"问题均衡发展提供理论依据和政策启示。

The problem of water shortages and pollution is serious in China, especially in rural areas. Water shortages present a three dimensional rural issue that includes agriculture, rural areas and farmers. The water poverty index （WPI） is the most widely used model for water poverty assessment. Here, we build an indictor system for water poverty assessment and economic poverty （EPI） assessment according to the WPI model, a convenient comparison of water poverty and economic poverty in different regions across China. The levels of rural water poverty and rural economy poverty in 31 administrative regions were then assessed from 1995-2011 using non-linear regression techniques. A model for the relationship between water poverty and economic poverty was designed, and the temporal coordination degrees were obtained. There was an obvious rule that while the EPI improved, WPI improved. These results demonstrate that in order to realize the coupling stage of the water-economic poverty system in rural areas, changing the rate of each subsystem moderately and making the direction of the two subsystems similar could be an appropriate approach. As an important support mechanism, double-poverty alleviation policies should be implemented based on the characteristics of water poverty and economy poverty discussed here.