近60年黄河干流水沙变化及其驱动因素

Variation of Runoff and Sediment and Their Driving Factors of the Yellow River Mainstream in the Past 60 Years

基于1952-2011年黄河干流4个重要水文控制断面径流量和输沙量的时间序列资料,定量分析黄河水沙的沿程变化规律及主要驱动因素。结果表明：1）近60年黄河水沙减少趋势显著,且在未来一段时间继续呈减少趋势;4个断面径流量在1968年和1985年出现丰枯转折,输沙量则在中下游3个断面出现差异性变化;潼关和花园口断面径流量年际变化在1980年代后期出现突变,输沙量4个断面均在1985-1998年期间出现突变。2）头道拐断面水沙关系在1968年和1989年出现突变,潼关与花园口断面均在1979年和1999年出现突变,利津断面只在1999年出现突变。3）黄河水沙存在多尺度周期变化,径流量以准3年,准9年,准25年为主,输沙量以准3-4年,准9年为主,而且径流量与输沙量之间以及上中下游均存在较强的周期变化响应。4）上游水沙变化以气候变化为主要驱动因素,也包括水利工程、取耗水等人为因素,中游以强烈的水土流失、水利水保措施为主,下游水沙变化除了表现为对上中游地区的强烈响应之外,还受取耗水等因素影响。

Based on the time series data of runoff and sediment from 4 hydrological control sections including Toudaoguai,Tongguan,Huayuankou and Lijin,the variations of runoff and sediment of the Yellow River and their major driving factors from 1952 to 2011were analyzed quantitatively.Some conclusions were as follows：1）Both runoff and sediment showed apparently decreasing trends in the past 60 years,and the trends would continue for some time to come.There existed rich-poor transitions of runoff in all sections in 1968 and 1985,while different transitions of sediment happened at all sections except for the upstream one.The annual runoff variation of Tongguan and Huayuankou sections showed mutations in the later 1980s,the sediment discharge of all sections,otherwise,appeared mutations during 1985-1998.2）For the relationship between runoff and sediment,mutations emerged in 1968 and 1989 at Toudaoguai section,in 1979 and 1999 at Tongguan and Huayuankou sections,and in 1999 at Lijin section.3）Both of the runoff and sediment presented multi-scale periodic changes.The cycles of runoff were mainly about 3,9,25 years,and the cycles of sediment were mainly about 3~4 years and 9 years.Also,there were strong periodical responses existed between runoff and sediment and along the entire stream.4）The variation of runoff and sediment in the upper Yellow River was mainly driven by climate change,also by hydraulicprojects and water intake and consumption.Factors in the midstream could be mainly ascribed to soil erosion,hydraulic measures and soil and water conservation.In addition to the strong response to the variation of runoff and sediment in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River,factors of the lower reaches also included water intake and consumption.